The bill for indecision always comes due
Roman statesman Cicero, said: “More is lost by indecision than by wrong decision.”
Decisiveness isn’t just a skill—it’s a necessity.
In this one:
Compute
Evaluate
Execute
Also, some timely extras in the Buffet. Let’s start.
STORY
Think like a computer
Computers are rule-based systems, whereas the human brain is more dynamic, intuitive, and influenced by things like emotions, memories, and cognitive biases.
All our decisions are based on conditional logic. Overcomplicating the conditions creates fatigue and paralysis. Unlike machines, we feel uncertainty—hesitation, doubt, fear. And that makes taking action harder.
To cut through indecision, we need simple ways to process choices. Computers do this effortlessly through a basic yet powerful construct: if-then-else.
The "if-then-else" statement is a structure that instructs the computer to execute different code blocks (sets of instructions) based on whether a condition is true or false. It may seem overly simplified yet it is foundational to how we think.
How it works
In programming, the if-then-else construct is a simple decision-making tool. Here’s how it works:
IF a certain condition is met, THEN execute a specific action
ELSE (i.e. if the condition is not met), take an alternative actionThis eliminates unnecessary complexity by focusing only on key decision points and their immediate next steps. No hesitation, no overthinking.
How we complicate decisions
We don’t just decide based on “if this, then that.” We add layers of uncertainty: “I’ll do X, but only if Y and Z also align perfectly.” Sound familiar?
Before we know it, we’re stuck. Second-guessing, overthinking, waiting for the perfect conditions. We need to consult again…we lose time.
Our emotions, biases, and fear of failure introduce unnecessary conditions that computers would never account for. Yet many times this mental clutter does more harm than good. The more conditions you add, the harder decisions become.
A bias for action
A computer doesn’t need to feel ready. It doesn’t pause to weigh how an action might be perceived. It simply follows a structured decision path and executes. While we are not machines, there’s something valuable in adopting this kind of clarity in certain situations.
A bias for action doesn’t mean making reckless choices. It means making choices sooner rather than later, knowing that action leads to feedback, and feedback leads to refinement. Deliberation is necessary; hesitation is costly.
Application
Instead of overcomplicating decisions, simplify them:
IF an opportunity aligns with my core goals, THEN take the next step
ELSE (i.e. if it doesn’t), move on without overanalyzingOr even more practically:
IF I have enough information to move forward, THEN act
ELSE identify what’s missing—but don’t stay stuck in endless evaluationMany times, we think we need more certainty, but what we really need is movement. A plan without execution is just an illusion of progress.
Decisions don’t have to be perfect; they just have to be made. The longer you wait, the fewer viable options you’ll eventually have.
EXPLAINER
Bond vs bond fund pt. 4: Weighing the trade-offs
Throughout this series, we’ve explored how to make an informed decision with a real example of choosing between investing in a bond or a bond fund—using core investing principles as our guide.
It all started with a simple question, but the kind that can keep you marking time. I have used the series to demonstrate the value of fundamentals (an investment strategy and an investment plan) in speeding up decision making.
Today, we conclude the series—bringing it all together by weighing the trade-offs and connecting everything.
The core difference
A bond is an instrument that you buy, directly lending money to a government or corporation for a set period, at a fixed or variable interest rate. A bond fund, on the other hand, pools money from multiple investors to buy a mixed portfolio of bonds, managed by professionals.
The key trade-off? Control vs. convenience.
When you buy an individual bond, you control the holding period and cash flows. With a bond fund, you gain diversification and professional management but give up control over which bonds are invested in and how long they’re held.
As you weigh these trade-offs, consider how they align with your specific needs—whether it's income stability, risk tolerance, or flexibility. Your goals and time horizon will ultimately shape the best approach for you.
Consider bonds if you understand how they work and prefer predictability, control, and holding to maturity.
Consider bond funds if you prefer diversification, liquidity, and professional management.
Many investors blend both, holding individual bonds for stability, and bond funds for liquidity and diversification.
It’s all connected
Choosing between a bond and a bond fund isn’t just about yield or convenience—it’s about how an asset class (i.e. fixed income) fits into your bigger picture.
Your philosophy dictates how much control you want over your investments.
Your strategy determines how fixed income fits into your broader portfolio.
Your plan ensures your choice meets your specific financial needs.
Ultimately, the right decision is the one that best serves your goals while staying true to how you approach investing. Understanding how these fundamentals apply to your decisions makes for clarity over the long term.
If you start guided by fundamentals & frameworks, then your investment decisions will be clearer and more meaningful. Else, good luck.
BUFFET
Decisions make the difference
Here are some great finds from the week:
A VC investor’s thoughts on hard leadership decisions [Watch]
Short term thinking can destroy long term value [Watch]
Strategy & planning when your investment loses 50% in 3 months IRL [Read]
NOTES
Without execution, we have nothing
Leadership is decision-making. Every decision carries risk. We often overlook this because of our perception of risk, but the best leaders understand this instinctively.
Decisiveness is a prerequisite of high performance. Not all high performers are leaders, and not all leaders are high performers. Decisiveness is a differentiator among leaders.
Indecision stems from fear and creates more fear. And it’s not that high-performers aren’t afraid. They just don’t approach fear in the same way as others.
“The difference between a hero and a coward isn’t what they feel. They’re both scared. It’s what they do.” –Cus D’Amato
The difference between the 1% who lead and the 99% who follow isn’t perfect judgement. It’s the willingness to make hard decisions in imperfect conditions.
High performers don’t wait for every variable to be known. They rely on learned or created mental models and frameworks to simplify complexity, filter noise and focus on what matters most. They focus on execution.
They know that action yields not just outcomes, but valuable information. And with this, they confront fear through action, again and again. Where many hesitate, they act.
So, then, a mark of a high-performing leader is one who is willing to act decisively in all situations. These leaders make decisions and own all outcomes. Whether they’re wrong or right will only be known through execution.
Without execution, we have nothing.
“In any moment of decision, the best thing you can do is the right thing, the next best thing is the wrong thing, and the worst thing you can do is nothing.”
—Theodore Roosevelt
exit(0);
In easy times, the cost of hesitation is negligible. But in moments of difficulty, you don’t face obstacles, you face decisions. How quickly you make them can make all the difference.
Compute, evaluate, & execute the best week possible.
AG
📢Announcement:
Investment decisions can feel hard to make without the right frameworks. Wairimu Ndung'u & I have been running a masterclass to help people understand money, their relationship with it & foundational investing principles tied to this. Learn more about the upcoming session here. If you’d like to make clearer money decisions then register to join, else we’ll see you at the next one.
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